Ladies Singles Wimbledon - The Big One

[croaker]

The girls have all had a few matches on grass and are now ready to live the dream.

I'm looking forward to 2 weeks of bad bounces, questionable line calls, injuries, meltdowns, upsets, rain delays and probably a few other things I can't imagine.

Record brought forward is:

65-56

+163 +1.1% ROI

I've bet over $15k over the last few weeks [not all at once] and pretty much broken even. I think I have had a small amount of bad luck but not really significant. But I have struggled on grass [like some of the girls] but hopefully have improved a little. I think my capping has improved a little but the variance on grass seem's to be higher so am still not sure whether I am profitable or not. Doing these posts is helping me as I can't fudge the results or make excuses for losses.

With a field of 128 there are a lot of matches and I hope to bet as many as possible and to ignore my personal preferences and just go off the numbers ie betting where there is value rather than trying to pick the winner.

I'm rejecting bets where 1. There seems to be an issue with the players skill level on grass 2. Not having at least a couple of warm up grass matches, 3. Where there isn't enough data to be reliable, and 4. Where the odds are very low ie under -300. I'll mention these in a separate post.

I am assuming that all players are good to go from an injury point of view.

The lines have been out or a while now and are already starting to move. So I have placed my bets as follows to avoid second guessing myself later on.

All to win $100, and it is using quite a bit of my bank roll so hopefully it will go well and I survive for the 2nd round.


Favorites

sloane	-175
lottner	-141
barthel	-145
pera	-130
begu	-200
lapko	-175
safarova	-208
martic	-114
stosur	-143
q wang	-222

Live dogs

clare liu	123
bogdan	113
su-wei	124
giorgi	107
y wang	172
diyas	143

Underdog

siniakova

330

BOL

 

[croaker]

NB

I placed the Diyas bet a bit early, I remembered just after I pressed the "are you sure button" that she had pulled out of a tourney with some sort of injury and this will be her first match back so she may not be up to speed on grass.

For the short priced favorites.

These are the players that I think have value even though they are short priced

halep	-1000
riske	-400
krunic	-400
kerber	-833
svito	-500
konta	-500
kr pliskova	-455

I'm reluctant to bet these ML so will try taking these in parlays on my b635 account which has a parlay bonus.

I'm working through the bet amounts and odds atm.

 

[croaker]

Tough first day.

So far 3-7, I'll add things up after the end of day 2 but not looking good.

Only Giorgi, Siniakova and Safarova won.

Sloane, Barthel and Begu were disappointing, all clear losers. Sloane in particular looked really bad.

Wang, Pera, Lottner, Martic lost in pretty close matches. They all had their chances. Wang only managed to win 5 service games over the 3 sets and still managed to keep it close.

Still waiting on Lapko to complete her match, she is leading 3-2 in the 3rd set.

A couple of interesting results.

Maria beat Svitolina reasonably comfortably, Rybarikova is out, Radwanska had to survive 6 match points against Ruse, who then promptly choked the next 2 games to lose the match.

It was a little windy but not severe, but it did seem to affect some of the girls with there serve toss, but it was same for both players.

Last year on the first day 30% of games were service breaks, it was almost exactly the same this year. The matches were a little longer this year with more going to 3 sets, but all in all it was just another normal day in the WTA.

I'll just watch tonight and then have a look at round 2. And hopefully have a slightly higher balance tomorrow.

 

[croaker]

Last night went a bit better than yesterday, but didn't help with much the with my balance.

Bogdan was serving for the match at 5-4 in the 3rd set but couldn't finish it off and ended up losing it 6-8.

Lapko managed to close out the 3rd set avoiding a repeat of her last match against Flipkens.

Su-Wei beat Pavly in 3 sets, Pavly made too many UFE's to really pressure her.

Liu won in 3 sets, she won Jr Wimbledon last year and came runner up in Jr FO as well.

Stosur ended up beating Peng pretty comfortably and sets up a 2nd round match against fellow Australian Gavrilova. Stosur won the last time they played

Saisai beat Q Wang pretty comfortably and Diyas withdrew which is better for everyone than her trying to play injured.

So ended up 4-2 for thr night and 7-9 for the first round for -$560 -20% ROI]. Wang, Begu and Sloane accounted for -$586 of this.

Went 3-7 with favorites and 4-2 with dogs.

3 were clear losers and 2 were clear winners, the other 11 matches were pretty close.


BTCL

Apart from Lottner and Pera who's odds dropped significantly I beat the close by 9%. Including those 2, I beat the close by 3%.

Lottner and Pera both lost in 3 sets. Pera went up a break and then gave it back in the next games. And from then she only got 1 point in the last 3 games of the match and that was at 0-40 in the final game.


Overall record

72-65

-399 -2.3% [which is around the level of the vig]

First Round

Overall in the first round favorites went 40-24 at an average price for the winners of 1.36 or -277.

Using the favorite lines at the same time I placed my bets as a base, I was outperformed by the market which went -15% with flat bet sizing and -12.3% using the same variable bet sizing that I use.

Players with lines of -1000 or less went 7-1 for -22%. Kvitova was the only loser and she lost badly. Possibly not healthy, or the patch of form she had were she was regularly hitting the lines was not sustainable. She has been missing a few of these and not just in last nights match.

Radwanska was lucky to escape with the win at -1111 against a below average player, saving 6 match points in the 3rd set.



Anyway I still have enough in my account to keep going so will try again tonight.

 

[croaker]

I will have another crack tonight.

I'm going to try and put a bit of thought into my picks for tonight rather than just going off the numbers.

The numbers are still important as they are what the odds makers use to set the opening lines.

Also I'm not too concerned about beating the closing lines after seeing a lot of my picks beat the close and still lose....

Mathematically BTCL is correct but practically I don't know if it is any easier to predict the line movements than to pick winners. I'll just try to identify +EV spots and let the closing lines end up where they want.

Also Sloanes loss was thought provoking. She had really strong numbers but had done no grass prep and got the same one and done result as last year. Turn up smile for the cameras, cross fingers, look disappointed after loss, then have time for some shopping.

Also grass seems trickier to cap. And from what I have observed so far people who have been playing well on the surface seem to continue to play well.

I am coming around to the view, that similar to NFL and NBA capping, the numbers are a good place to start but you then have to make the adjustments.

So here are my picks for tonight so far.

Maria v Mladenovic

Maria is 13-4 on grass since 2017 and has beaten a few decent players along the way.

At plus odds she looks value.

Her stat line is still poor so she is not getting much respect from the odds makers. Any other player would probably be hot favorite. The girl she beat in the Mallorca final just beat Sakkari. She also played very confidently against Svito and looked as if she expected to win. Getting her first WTA win looks to have helped her mentally.

Adding Maria ML +122

Siniakova v Jabeur

Siniakova holds a 4-0 H2H over Jabuer and she will be giving 100%. May not be an easy win but she should get there in the end.

Adding Siniakova ML -156

Radwanska v Safarova

Radwanska has a good record on grass and looks value at the odds. Maybe a little too short on her last match and maybe over reaction to the close win for this match. She didn't look convincing but today is a new day.

Safarova has been beaten by Su-Wei and and Maria this year who playing styles are a little similar to Radwanska. I like the style match up to favor Radwanska.

Adding Radwanska ML at +105 better chance of winning than flip odds IMO.

Rodina v Cirstea

Rodina has been rock solid on grass this year going 9-3 and looked very good against Lottner, and hardly made an error in the last set and had pretty good length and accuracy.

Cirstea got the win over the over-rated and possibly injured Rybarikova at long odds.

Adding Rodina ML +198

BOL

 

[croaker]

Ended up going 2-2 essentially breakeven.

Rodina won pretty comfortably after losing the first set convincingly. Rodina was wearing bandage on her knee and her movement was limited, but she got into rhythm in the second set and looked the better player despite limping between points.

Radwanska missed a simple lob at set point in the first set and seemed to give up after that. Safarova played pretty well but Radwanska did not.

Didn't see Maria's match but looked like she was well beaten.

Siniakova gritted out a win 9-7 in third set.

Both girls struggled with their serves towards the end of the match. 9 of the last 13 games of the final set were breaks, but Siniakova managed to hold in the 16th and final game.


Other matches

Wozniaki lost 1-2 to Makarova. I saw the first 2 sets and am still in a little bit of disbelief that she lost. The Russian player took a couple of long toilet breaks between each set, a lot of players do this but the Russian players always seem to come back with more energy....

This match was interesting as there was an invasion of several thousand flying ants. A lot them of seemed to take a liking to Wozniaki, which was not reciprocated.

...........................................................

I didn't post any picks for yesterday's games. After seeing a number of short priced favorites lose I'm looking at a new method for calculating odds of players winning using non parametric statistical tests. It requires a lot of manual calculations for each match at this stage so it has been slow work.

Anyway the odds calculated with the new model seem to fit the observed historical data and small sample of prospective data better than my original attempt, at least on grass.

Basically you need to assume a very long series for the standard models, with my latest model assumes a very short series and has no requirement for a normal distribution [which seems to be how individual tennis matches work].

It would have helped me avoid the losses on Begu and Sloane, which I like, and it makes Wozniaki's loss to Makarova more understandable, but the proof in the pudding will be if helps me with future bets......

I'll persevere with Wimbledon and keep my fingers crossed that I at least breakeven for the rest of the tourney.

Updated record

74-67

-376 -2.1% ROI

 

[croaker]

I thought I had posted this earlier so a little out of date, but my picks are still to play.


Tonight's matches

Venus v Bertens

Last time they played there were 15 service breaks out of 34 games, Bertens had match point in the 3rd set.

They have both had a couple of matches on grass, at +155 bertens is value.

Adding Bertens +155

Serena v Mladenovic

Serena's almost unbeatable on grass with her last loss on the surface was to Cornet in the 3rd round of Wimbledon in 2014, after she had won a couple of easy matches.

Tonight she is in the 3rd round of Wimbledon after a winning a couple of easy matches and now faces Mladenovic.........

They have played one match in 2016 which was basically a flip with Serena winning a tie break 12-10 to close the second set and match.

Adding Mladenovic +355


Ka Pliskova v Buza

First time either of these have made to the 3rd round.

Pliskova played solid against Azarenka but Azarenka put in a bit of a clunker. almost 33% of Pliskova's points came off UFE's from Azarenka.

This match will be tougher and Buza has been playing well on grass.

If Pliskova can stay focused for the entire match she should be too strong and would probably justify the short price. She survived against a bit of pressure from the number 171 ranked Dart, but Dart let her off the hook. Don't think Buza will be so generous if she gets ahead.

Hopefully they are playing on a Hawkeye enabled court.....


Adding Buza ML +186

Other matches

Safarova v Makarova - a flip which looks to be price correctly

Rodina v Keys - Keys too short and Rodina not long enough especially as she had a sore knee in her last match.

Siniakova v Giorgi - I would take Siniakova here apart from her weak effort against Jabeur

Wickmeyer v Vekic - pass

Goerges v Strycova - I like Strycova to win this may add later if odds improve.

 

[croaker]

Well done Rodina

She had a good preparation on grass, played courageously with a sore knee against a much higher ranked opponent The commentators never thought she was going to win until Keys hit her final shot into the net....

Hopefully Mladenovic follows her lead.

Siniakova had match point in the 2nd set but couldn't close it, lost the tie break and is currently hanging on in the 3rd set, thigh bandage and knee bandage and hobbling around like Rodina.

Strycova line has been steamed so I will pass, my model shows value for Goerges Strycova is very good on grass and I think Goerges will struggle to break her, and make enough errors on her own serve to lose a few breaks., so will pass.

 

[croaker]

Bertens got a close win. Not a bad effort for someone who hasn't got a great record on grass.

Buza lost 1-2, went close in the 2nd set.

Mladenovic went down in 2 close sets.

So went 1-2 for small profit.

Updated record

75-69

-358 -2.0%

...................


Tonight's picks


Navarro ML +123

When I was placing my bet on Navarro the line was +129 and it updated twice before I could finally get on at +123, it the dropped to +120, and has now gone out to +131

Sasnovich ML +116

Mertens ML -120

BOL

Go Van Uytvanck - I bet her but won;t count for records as I posted too late.

 

[croaker]

Didn't manage to see any of the games but ended up 1-2.

So my pain on grass continues.

Navarro only managed to win 3 out 10 service games.

Cibulkova has been playing well and Mertens not so much so not a big surprise she lost.

Sasnovich won comfortably.


Overall record now

76-71

-459 -2.5%


Round 3 Summary

Favorites went 7-9 for -37%.

I ended going 2-4 for -20%.


Rodina

Rodina has been playing pretty well despite having an injured knee, but it seems to affect her ability to walk more than her ability to hit the ball.

I used the data from her matches against Lottner and Cirstea to estimate her win % vs Keys and it increased from 20% to 37%.

I've also done an estimate for Rodina's match against Serena using data from both players last 3 matches and Rodina ends up with a win % of around 38%. So I expect Rodina to be a live dog in this spot.

Its hard to see Serena losing to Rodina, even if Rodina plays well. But it is possible.

 

[croaker]

Tonight's picks all dogs....

Big night for the girls with the opportunity to make it into the last 8. It looks like they will 2 lots of 4 matches running simultaneously.

Bet sizing all to win $100.

I'm investing $277, and need 2 wins to break even,

I've weighted the matches with a small bias towards recent form at Wimbledon as the girls have all had at least 3 matches at the tourney against reasonable opponents. Rodina has had 6 matches including qualifying so she should be used to the surface.


Rodina ML +828

Serena should win but I think Rodina has a better than 10% chance of winning... I'd rather have $12 riding on Rodina than $1100 riding on Serena.

Serena is also taking the match seriously after seeing a lot of the other big names exit to underdogs, and she must rate herself a good chance to win the tourney.

Hopefully Rodina's knee holds up and it's not a slaughter. She has finished her matches strongly so if she can hang in there she may have a chance to shock the world.


Van Uytvanck ML +134

Alison has been playing well, beating Mugu and Kontaveit comfortably. She lost to Kina 1-2 a couple of weeks ago at shorter odds than she is atm.

I think this will be a close match. I would have preferred her at the earlier line of +150.

Sasnovich ML +197

Penko is 5-1 on grass this year with only loss to Radwanska, and she beat Sasnovich 6-0, 1-6, 6-3 at last years Wimbledon, and I can see why she is 4th favorite to win the tourney.

Sasnovich has good from at this years Wimbledon and I put her at around 45% chance of winning tonight.


Bertens ML +182

This will be tough for Bertens. She has gone from sucking on grass to winning 3 in a row, including a win over Venus.

Pliskova was solid against Azarenka but probably should have lost to Buza, [but Buza lost her composure after losing a close 2nd set after leading 4-1] and Pliskova lost a set to Dart.

If Pliskova keeps her cool for the entire match she should get the win, but she can lose focus.

Not a sure thing but Bertens is definitely value at the odds.

Giorgi ML +118

This was tough to cap. Makarova has very good recent form but Giorgi has got the better stats for last couple of months.

I'm going with Giorgis power. They are both big hitters but Giorgi is a bit more reliable and less likely to choke if its a close match. She ground out a tough win over Siniakova, who fights hard for every point.



I couldn't find much value in the other matches.

BOL

 

[croaker]

Adding Su-Wei +160

Just went through the numbers again and I don't think Cibulkova will have the same success on her serve against Su-Wei as she has had against her other opponents. This makes the match a lot closer and gives Su-Wei around a 45% chance of winning which is good enough for me.

Cibulkova has beaten Su-Wei twice but not on grass and their recent match at the AO was very close even though Cibulkova won 2-0. The 2nd set was 10-8 in the tie break.

I expect Su-Wei to get the support of the crowd again, which seemed to help her against Halep.

 

[croaker]

It was a good day for chalk with favorites going 6-2.

Flat betting the favorites would have returned +12%.

BTCL went 2-3 for the moves over 5%.

My girls went 2-4 for exactly breakeven.

Adding Su-Wei late didn't work out for me.


Regarding the capping, using data from the last 3 matches was the worst, and using the weighted average was at least as good as the historical data.

...................

Serena played really well, Rodina was competitive in the rallies but Serena was on fire with her serve and returns. Rodina got one break but Serena was banging down too many winners on a regular basis, and she looked at lot sharper than in her match against Mladenovic.

Goerges cruised to victory against Vekic. She only trailed after Vekic held serve in the opening game.

Bertens beat Pliskova pretty comfortably and was only behind after the first game of the match when Pliskova held her serve. Bertens has gone from being bad on grass to beating top players on the surface. She looked pretty good.

Giorgi beat Makarova comfortably never trailing, she got tight when up 40-15 while serving for the match but kept her nerve and closed it out with some great power hitting.

Van Uytvanck put in a clunker, making too many UFE's to have chance to win match, Kina got more confident as the match progressed and AVU looked beaten early in the 3rd set. AVU was either missing the court or hitting a safe shot into the slot for Kina to hit winners.

Alison blew a chance to go up 3-1 on her serve in the second set but blew an easy winner. She only won 3 more games after that.


There were a few interesting issues with the umpiring.

Sasnovich got off to a good start and was up 5-2 in first set, but ending up losing 0-2. The turning point in the match was when one of the line judges complained about Penko and she got a warning from the chair umpire. That seemed to fire her up and she played lights out after that.

Su-Wei was hanging in there in the first set at 4-4, and there was a point played where the ball was close to the line and called out, Su-Wei hit it back, and Cibul challenged the call, and Hawkeye showed it to be in. Anyway the umpire incorrectly awarded the point to Cibulkova and Su-Wei complained and ended up getting the tournament referee to come over. The chair umpire then couldn't remember what had happened amd neither could Cibulkova, only Su-Wei, the crowd and everyone watching on TV could see the error. Worse refereeing than the than the Durant charge.

They eventually replayed the point [which was the correct decision] but Su-Wei wasn't the same after that, may not have cost her the match but it definitely didn't help her.

Bencic had an issue with the challenges as well, she used up her last challenge on a service fault and a couple of points later, looked to make another challenge but she had none left. Hawkeye showed she would have lost the challenge anyway but she lost her composure and it took her a while to settle down. It hurt her chances of winning the set as she was playing pretty well at the time. Kerber was better player on the day.

Record now

78-75

-459 -2.4%

...........................

I've looked at tonight's QF's and it looks like Kerber has big advantage over Kina, the Bertens and Cibulkova matches look like flips and Serena will be a deserved short priced favorite over Giorgi.

There may be value on Giorgi and Cibulkova but I will watch how the lines move before putting any money down.

Giorgi is the only player who can match Serena's power. Her average 2nd serve speed is faster than Kerber's, Kina's, Cibulkova's average 1st serve, and only a little behind Penko's first serve speed. Her serve is more powerful than Serena's but she doesn't have the same control over placement. For Giorgi to win she would have to play very well and Serena would have to have a couple of stretches where she drops her level [which is possible].

 

[croaker]

Adding Giorgi ML +377

Long shot, but Giorgi has chance, but will have to play well. Giorgi played a close match with Serena a few years ago and Giorgi is now playing better. Serena is playing very well but probably still not up to 100%.

Adding Kerber -200

Kerber won't be a UFE machine like Kina's last 2 opponents. She is playing very well.

Adding Ostapenko ML -129

It looks like a flip but I give the edge to Penko, based on serving performance.

BOL

 

[bmoreforlife]

Good luck today looks like you were right about Ostapenko

 

[croaker]

Yeah Penko's eyes lit up everytime she Cibul's 2nd serve. Over went close, Kina only needed 1 more game but couldn't hold serve at the end.

I was thinking about taking Cibulkova with the +odds, as her stats looked pretty good. But ended up taking Penko as I thought she could cash in on Cibuls weak 2nd serve. Interestingly Kerber's 2nd serve is even weaker than Cibulkova's.

....

Serena's match was similar to a mens match with 2 serve dominant players going hard out. Giorgi had a chance but Serena was pretty much unbeatable on serve and won 6-4 in the 3rd set. Serena only dropped 14 points in 14 service games. Serena also stayed calm and relaxed even after going down a set.

Giorgi dropped 30 points in 14 service games which would normally win her a lot of matches but not today.

Serena has a very good serve, with speed, placement and she disguises her serves very well. She mixes them up nicely so her opponents have around a 20% of guessing correctly.

Giorgi played well in the rallies and was putting the ball into Serena's body to avoid giving her a good angle to hit winners, but she couldn't get the ball in play enough when Serena was serving.

....

Kerber escaped 2-0 after looking comfortable for most of the match, it looked like she gassed after she went ahead in the 2nd set and was cruising, I'm guessing but that it wasn't lack of fitness but more likely an adrenalin dump after relaxing when she thought she had won the match. She had nothing that could trouble Kina towards the end of the match.

It was an exciting end to the match with Kina saving multiple match points in the final game and they played some great points which could have gone either way.

....

So ended up 2-1 last night so nice to get a profit.

Record now

80-76

-286 -1.5% ROI


....

Looking at the early lines for the semis

Kerber match is priced according to the numbers and I get exactly the same odds as the oddsmakers.

Regarding the match-up it should be similar to the Kerber's match against Kina, Penko will have an enjoyable time against Kerbers 2nd serve but will have to cut down her UFE's as Kerber will be able to keep the ball in play longer than Cibulkova. I expect there will be a lot of breaks in the match. I think there is small value on Kerber at current odds.

Goerges match against Serena looks like it will be close but should be a similar to the Giorgi match with Goerges needing Serena to have a couple of lapses on serve and play almost perfectly on her own serve.

Serena has a very serve dominant game which is a little like the mens. And she seems to get better as the match progresses. I think there is also small value on Serena.

....

 

[bmoreforlife]

I feel that Ostapenko will have too many unforced errors to win this match.

 

[croaker]

I agree but if the Penko line goes out to over +150, I'd still bet her even though Kerber will probably win.

 

[croaker]

No bets last 2 nights night.

Goerges seemed to have strategy of trying to make Serena run, but just seemed to set her up for angled crosscourt shots.

Kerber won comfortably, Penko's 36 UFE's in 18 games is not a good recipe for winning.

Final tonight

Hard to see Kerber troubling Serena with her slow serves. Serena only made 7 UFE's against Goerges so its hard to see where Kerber will get her points from.

I expect this match to be easier for Serena than her matches against Goerges and Giorgi. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kerber use the drop shot and moonball strategy.......

Adding Serena -192

BOL

 

[croaker]

Finished off the grass season with another loss.

Kerber played good but Serena played very poorly.

She had 16 UFE's over 5 sets in her previous 2 matches and made 24 in 2 quick sets against Kerber, including a couple of howlers.

Not her day but congrats to Kerber getting her first Grand Slam title.

Record

80-77

-478 -2.5% ROI

I dropped almost $1,300 on grass with a -13.5% ROI.

I think my capping and knowledge of the game [or the maths of it] has improved.

Good luck to Keven Anderson tonight, he's beaten the odds twice now he deserves to get the win after his last 2 efforts but will find it tough and Djoko.